One thing’s been clear in the past five years when NFL teams have hired head coaches: Offense has been the desired side of the ball.
Twenty-three out of 34 NFL head-coach hirings in that span have had offensive backgrounds, 10 were coaches with defensive backgrounds and one had a special teams background (Joe Judge). But that more than two-to-one rate of offensive coaches getting the gig over their defensive counterparts could change this offseason with how the league is trending and a strong pool of candidates from the defensive side.
Teams expect a new coach to continue what they excelled at with their previous team. So if they were a wizard offensive coordinator, then they’re expected to install their offense and eventually create the production that they had with their previous team. Of course, there is a lot more to being a head coach than just coordinating one side of the ball. Teams have to determine if the candidate can be a leader of men, can manage a locker room, or be able to put together a strong staff, but they only have the interview process to make that assessment. Someone can say all the right things to an owner or general manager and do all the wrong things once hired.
So a big part of a candidate’s resume is usually how productive the units that they coordinated were. Numbers are tangible and most organizations want to light up the scoreboard. Points are exciting, they win games, and for so long, scoring was trending up. In the Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia’s article 10 Rules for Hiring a Head Coach, one rule is prioritizing offensive efficiency because in the past 10 years, 35 of the 40 teams that participated in their conference championship games finished top 10 in offensive DVOA, FTN’s efficiency metric.
GO DEEPER
Chargers mailbag: How attractive is the head coach opening? Who are the building blocks?
Kapadia wasn’t suggesting teams should only hire offensive coaches since there have been many defensive head coaches who have been able to sustain efficient offenses. Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott all have defensive backgrounds but have had stretches of great offensive production. But if you hire a defensive coach, you’d better have an elite quarterback. Part of the appeal of hiring an offensive wizard is that the best ones can make a less-than-elite quarterback look elite. Kyle Shanahan is an extreme example of this but even his protege Mike McDaniel transformed Tua Tagovailoa into an MVP candidate.
A defensive head coach has more of a challenge developing a quarterback. A team that is hiring a new head coach often is also looking for a new quarterback and developing that player is one of the most important tasks a franchise has. This is why a defensive coach needs to nail their first offensive coordinator hire.
As an offensive coach, you can mess up your first defensive coordinator hiring as long as your offense is firing from all cylinders. If you develop a quarterback, you can win shootouts at a high rate. It’s hard winning defensive standoffs year after year. The Green Bay Packers Matt LaFleur revived Aaron Rodgers’ career and helped Rodgers win MVP in 2020. He also fired his defensive coordinator Mike Pettine after that season and he might fire his defensive coordinator Joe Barry after this season. But he’s in no danger of losing his job because his offense wins games and he’s done a nice job of developing Jordan Love. When a defensive coach starts to cycle through offensive coordinators, it’s a sign of trouble.
GO DEEPER
Commanders head-coaching search: Which potential candidates fit Josh Harris' vision?
That may make it seem like a bad idea to hire defensive coaches, but my point is that a defensive head coach needs to have a strong first offensive coordinator hire and from there, you hope he can make the right hire if that coach leaves. This year, defense-oriented DeMeco Ryans made an excellent hire, bringing Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco. The Houston Texans were 3-13-1 last season and now are on the brink of a playoff berth if they can beat the Indianapolis Colts, who also have made a remarkable turnaround. The Arizona Cardinals’ record doesn’t reflect how hard they’ve played or the strides they’ve made as a team, but Jonathan Gannon, who was the Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator last year, looks to have a great offensive coordinator hire with Drew Petzing.
There has been a crop of defensive coaches this season who have done excellent jobs coordinating their offense and there aren’t a lot of offensive coordinators that are getting buzz as head-coach candidates. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the top hot candidate from the offensive side of the ball, but there’s a drop-off after that. The Shanahan and Sean McVay coaching trees don’t have a lot of fruit left to give. The defensive candidates have outperformed the offensive candidates. Again, production as a coordinator doesn’t correlate with success as a head coach, but it’s a starting point that you can’t ignore. Here are the top head-coach candidates from the defensive side of the ball:
The only coach who rivals MacDonald as far as buzz is Johnson. What Macdonald’s done with the Ravens defense in the past couple of seasons is remarkable. Without one truly elite pass rusher, he has Baltimore leading the league in sacks. The Ravens aren’t the blitz-happy team they were with former DC Wink Martindale. Macdonald calls blitzes at the right time, his pressures are creative and his players have excellent fundamentals and effort. The Ravens praise his play calling and his ability as a teacher. He’s also only 36 years old.
The Vikings had one of the most disappointing defenses in the league last year, finishing 24th in DVOA and 26th in points allowed per drive. Flores transformed that unit this season into one that was just hoping to limit explosive plays into an aggressive blitzing one. Through 16 games, the Vikings are eighth in DVOA and 18th in points allowed per drive with mostly the same players from last season. The problem with Flores was his inability as Miami Dolphins head coach to develop Tagovailoa, with whom he reportedly had a tumultuous relationship. It could be hard for a team looking to draft a quarterback to hire Flores. Perhaps, a team that already has a veteran in place could be the best fit.
The Raiders haven’t had a legitimately good defense for more than a decade. The 2023 Raiders are giving up only 1.78 points per drive, their best mark since 2010. They’re 11th in defensive DVOA, which is amazing considering their payroll on the defensive side of the ball is second-lowest in the league and one of their highest-paid players, Chandler Jones, hasn’t played a snap this season. Graham was getting some head coach buzz before he left the New York Giants for Las Vegas and he should get some interviews after the job he’s done with this group of young players.
Most expected the Rams defense to be one of the worst in the league this year. Aaron Donald was the only star and the Rams have the least amount of cash allocated to defensive players in the league. Despite that, they rank 22nd in defensive DVOA and 19th in points allowed per drive. They’re below average but Morris is making the best of his situation and they look like a well-coached group that plays hard. Morris has head-coach experience — he was hired by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when he was 32 and also served as interim head coach for the Atlanta Falcons. He did have a 10-win season in 2010 for the Bucs but also three losing seasons. His quarterback in Tampa was Josh Freeman. Morris should be a lot more prepared for another opportunity this time around.
Spagnuolo has been one of the best defensive coordinators in the league for a long time. The Chiefs prioritize their spending on the offensive side of the ball, so his defenses haven’t been strong statistically but they’ve always gotten better toward the end of the year and performed well in the playoffs. This season, he’s had young talent to work with and he’s engineered his best Chiefs defense yet. Kansas City ranks 10th in DVOA and third in points allowed per drive. Spagnuolo has expressed interest in getting another shot to be a head coach — he was the Rams’ head coach from 2009-2011 and interim Giants head coach in 2017.
Schwartz was one of the best assistant coach hires this season. The Browns defense ranks second in DVOA and second in points allowed per drive, but the Browns are historically good in defensive success rate (64 percent) in which they rank first this year. They were ranked 16th in DVOA last season. The Browns have a ton of talent, but Schwartz’s blitz scheme and his coverage disguises are excellent and he has legitimately weaponized this group. Schwartz was 29-51 as the Detroit Lions head coach but his work this year could earn him another shot. Schwartz has been in the league for a long time and has the connections to potentially put together a strong staff.
Quinn reinvented his scheme with the Cowboys, moving away from the Seattle Cover 3 scheme that is no longer en vogue. The Cowboys finished fourth in defensive DVOA last season and are ranked fifth this season. The former Falcons head coach, who led Atlanta to an NFC title in 2016, turned down head-coaching opportunities last season but may not resist another shot this time around.
Evero was a hot name after a strong first season as the defensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos last season. Broncos head coach Sean Payton wanted to keep him on staff when he was hired, but Evero chose to go to Carolina. He might not have the same buzz he had last season thanks to a dismal 2-14 season in Carolina. The Panthers have a good defensive roster but were marred by injuries and finished 26th in DVOA.
(Top photo: From left, Brian Flores by Michael Reaves / Getty Images; Raheem Morris by Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images; Mike Macdonald by Todd Olszewski / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
Post a Comment