The Steelers have perhaps the most complicated playoff picture in the league entering Week 18. They are the only NFL team that needs help to reach the postseason and can still get in with a loss. Let’s break it down.
Five AFC teams are competing for the conference’s three remaining playoff spots. The winner of Texans-Colts tonight (assuming no tie) will claim one spot, with the loser being eliminated. That leaves two spots for the Bills, Jaguars and Steelers. According to the model built by The Athletic’s Austin Mock, the Steelers’ playoff odds are 50.1 percent, while the Bills are at 82 percent and the Jaguars at 67.9 percent.
The New York Times’ model is less optimistic about Pittsburgh’s chances, pegging them at 28 percent (compared to 95 percent for the Bills and 77 percent for the Jaguars).
Per the Times’ model, the Steelers would boost their odds to 71 percent by beating the Ravens, who are resting most of their starters after locking up the AFC’s top seed. If the Steelers win, they would clinch a playoff berth with either a Jaguars loss to the Titans early Sunday afternoon or a Bills loss to the Dolphins on Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a Steelers loss to the Ravens would not necessarily be catastrophic. Per the Times, Pittsburgh’s odds would drop from 28 percent to only 20 percent with a loss at Baltimore. That’s because the Steelers would still reach the postseason with a Jaguars loss and a Broncos win over the Raiders.
The biggest variable might just be Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (shoulder), who is questionable to face the Titans. It’s not outlandish to say his availability could affect whether the Steelers make or miss the playoffs.
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