Consider this season’s NFC Championship Game matchup a rare treat. The San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions have faced off in the postseason only twice — and both games were barnburners.
Detroit last won an NFL championship in 1957. It reached that game by mounting a 20-point second-half playoff comeback at Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. The 49ers, while leading big at halftime, taunted the Lions through the thin drywall and air ducts that separated Kezar’s walls. They continued chirping as the teams walked together down the long, dark tunnel that connected the locker rooms at nearby Kezar Pavilion to the field. The 49ers ended up regretting their premature exuberance when the Lions rallied for the 31-27 victory that stands as the team’s last road playoff win.
The 49ers exacted vengeance in 1983’s divisional playoffs, coming back to beat Detroit 24-23. Joe Montana threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to 49ers receiver Freddie Solomon with just over a minute left. That remains one of the most painful losses in Lions history, with kicker Eddie Murray missing a 42-yard field goal that could’ve reversed the result.
Detroit would win only one playoff game — a victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the 1991 season — between that 1983 heartbreaker and this 2023 season, which has seen a resurgence under coach Dan Campbell, quarterback Jared Goff and an improving defense.
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Have the Lions made enough strides to truly challenge these 49ers, who are favored by 7 points, according to BetMGM? Let’s examine the pairing, beginning with a comparison of each team’s ratings in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
The Lions have fielded a top-10 offense for two consecutive seasons now. The surge of their defense, from the No. 27 ranking in 2022 to No. 13 this season, has been enough to push the team from a narrow playoff miss to the NFC title game.
But Detroit’s two postseason wins have come against competition that’s notably weaker than the 49ers. The Los Angeles Rams, whom the Lions beat 24-23 in the wild-card round, ranked No. 17 in DVOA. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom Detroit beat 31-23 on Sunday, ranked No. 18.
The 49ers, meanwhile, boast an elite statistical profile.
There’s only one pronounced weakness on the 49ers’ DVOA resume, and that’s their No. 25-ranked special teams unit. The Lions have also been mediocre there this season.
But a look deeper under the hood, starting with an examination of the 49ers’ troubles in their narrow divisional-round victory over the Green Bay Packers, shows there’s at least one more crack Detroit might be able to exploit.
Here are the primary points of concern for both teams in the context of this matchup.
49ers’ fracture point: Run defense
Green Bay running back Aaron Jones racked up 108 yards on just 18 carries against the 49ers, averaging 6 yards per rush. DVOA, which adjusts for strength of schedule, has San Francisco’s run defense at No. 15. The unit ranks even lower — No. 26 — in expected points added per play, but that measurement doesn’t adjust for quality of opponent.
Neither metric is a good sign for the 49ers, who were hoping the return of defensive tackle Arik Armstead from a foot injury would help solidify their run defense against the Packers. While Armstead played well, the 49ers struggled to consistently set firm edges, especially with exterior lineman Chase Young.
The Lions, with bruising 224-pound running back David Montgomery and the speedier Jahmyr Gibbs, present a run offense that looks built to give the 49ers problems.
Detroit’s offensive line has been particularly good in the ground game, with right tackle Penei Sewell, center Frank Ragnow, left tackle Taylor Decker and right guard Graham Glasgow paving the way to Pro Football Focus’ second-best cumulative run-blocking grade. Only the 49ers rank higher, and that sets up a compelling matchup since the Lions have been DVOA’s No. 1 run defense this season.
Detroit’s offense operates through its run-pass adaptability. Goff has been reasonably accurate and efficient within this framework, and the Lions have ranked No. 9 in time of possession per drive thanks to their balance. The Packers dragged the 49ers into an uncomfortable place by hogging the ball early through an even offensive distribution, and Detroit might be equipped to replicate that formula.
Tight end Sam LaPorta is a major pivot point in Detroit’s offense because he can credibly sell both run and pass at the line of scrimmage with his 86 catches, 889 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He should lock horns with star 49ers linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, who’s coming off a two-interception game that ultimately stymied Green Bay.
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Can the Lions take aim at 49ers No. 3 cornerback Ambry Thomas as successfully as the Packers did for a good chunk of Saturday’s game? Detroit’s top wideout is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was among the league leaders with 119 catches for 1,515 yards this season. There’s been a significant drop-off in production from St. Brown to the Lions’ other featured receivers, Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams.
Detroit uses the 6-foot-3 Reynolds as a versatile weapon both outside and in the slot. Outside of a brief five-game stint with the Tennessee Titans in 2021, Reynolds has played with Goff since 2017 in Los Angeles. Expect the Lions to mix and match their attacks against Thomas, who enters the game whenever the 49ers are in the nickel package.
It is worth noting that Goff has been a notch worse this season on the road than at home and also significantly worse outdoors than inside (the Lions host games inside on turf while Levi’s Stadium, the site of Sunday’s bout, is outside and has natural grass). Goff has dropped from 8.1 yards per attempt (which ranks No. 4) when playing indoors to 6.5 yards per attempt (which ranks No. 25) on natural grass, per Pro Football Reference. Sunday’s forecast does call for dry weather at nearly 70 degrees in Santa Clara.
Goff’s efficiency ranks are also significantly worse when he’s been under pressure.
The 49ers’ key, then, seems clear. They want to play this game on their pass-rushing terms. But that will require solving their biggest defensive weakness to slow Detroit’s powerful run game.
Lions’ fracture point: Pass defense
Versatile Lions defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson — well known as one of the league’s biggest trash-talkers — made waves in October, criticizing receiver Deebo Samuel for his role in the pregame scuffle between the 49ers and Cleveland Browns. Gardner-Johnson, who played for the Philadelphia Eagles last season before signing with Detroit, then called Samuel out on social media.
“You better hope all that talk you be doing, when we see you all, whatever round it may be, because I can guard you,” Gardner-Johnson said. “You can’t run routes. You’re a running back. I ain’t gonna sit here and play with you, little boy. Just because you got a little bag, people gave you a little clout, man, you ain’t nothing, bro.”
Samuel’s status for Sunday’s title game is in question after he injured his shoulder against the Packers. But 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said X-rays on Samuel came back negative, so there’s hope he’ll be ready to go for what might be a highly-charged matchup against Gardner-Johnson and the Detroit defense.
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The Lions have been relatively porous against the pass this season, although Gardner-Johnson missed most of it with a torn pectoral muscle. He returned earlier this month and has delivered two interceptions since, including one against Tampa Bay in the divisional round.
Detroit’s outside cornerbacks, Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor, haven’t had great seasons. They’ve allowed 112.0 and 140.6 passer ratings, respectively, when targeted in coverage. Nickelback Brian Branch has been better, allowing an 86.8 passer rating into his coverage, but the 49ers should have their usual edge against linebackers Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes in the passing game. They’ve been decent in coverage, but the presence of running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle consistently give the 49ers a big advantage on the second level.
Detroit’s potential advantages on defense can come against the run and in pass-rushing situations against the 49ers’ offensive line. Second-year edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson racked up 11 1/2 sacks this season and should see plenty of reps against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz, while big defensive tackle Alim McNeill has five sacks to go along with a rigid resume on run defense.
It’s up to the 49ers to neutralize both of those linemen. If they do, their pronounced offensive advantages elsewhere should have room to shine. If not, the Lions may have yet another opening to couple with their productive run game on the other side of the ball — and that can make for a very close NFC title game.
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